Consumer confidence has hit a new low, with over three-quarters of consumers feeling now is not a good time to spend on things they either want or need. Figures released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) show people feeling more pessimistic than ever about job prospects, personal finances and spending capabilities. Over 1,000 people were polled for the survey, which showed that inflation was the biggest concern for 55% of the respondents, with high interest rates worrying another third.
The index used to measure consumer confidence has fallen to 79, from 91 a year ago. Mike Watkins, a senior manager at the company doing the research for the BRC said, ‘Unfortunately consumers are being hit with both inflation and high interest at present and this has caused significant unease.’ Director-General of the BRC, Stephen Robertson, added, ‘With one in five people saying they have no spare cash – the highest ever recorded by this survey – customers are telling us they are cutting back on spending on all sorts of non-essentials. Clothes, footwear, furniture and new technology are the biggest casualties as consumers attempt to manage their money.’
According to the office for National Statistics, UK retail sales fell for a second consecutive month in April; the first time this has happened for 2 years. And John Lewis, often seen as a barometer for the High Street, saw its fourth consecutive fall in weekly sales at its department stores, compared with the same period last year. Chief economist at Global Insight, Howard Archer, said, ‘The recent underlying trend in sales is undeniably weaker and it adds to the mounting evidence that the consumer is now increasingly reining in his/her spending – either out of choice or out of necessity – in the face of serious pressures.’
Meanwhile, the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) has warned that the global economic slowdown might last longer than expected. In its twice yearly economic forecast it pointed out, ‘Our forecast is more negative than the one we produced six months ago. Some of the factors we were worried about, such as financial market turmoil, have actually come about. So we expect growth to be weak throughout the whole of 2008.’ Chief economist at the OECD, Jorgen Elmeskov said there were ‘three main forces acting on the world economy at the moment; financial turmoil, the collapse of the housing market, commodity prices which have increased rapidly.’
These concerns, combined with worries about the UK’s rate of inflation, caused the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep interest rates at 5% at their latest meeting this week. According to Ian McCafferty, who is the chief economic adviser for the CBI, ‘ Bank had little option this month other than to leave interest rates on hold.’ He added, ‘Oil and commodity prices are still of great concern and businesses are having to raise prices as profit margins get squeezed.’ Despite concerns in some quarters, many analysts agree with the decision. Stephen Robertson from the BRC pointed out, ‘ Struggling customers and retailers certainly need a boost but, with rising oil and commodity prices stoking inflation to well above the 2% target, leaving rates unchanged was the wise option.’
For some, though, the gloomy prognostications have a silver lining. The falling housing market has meant that first time buyers are increasingly able to afford to climb aboard the housing ladder. A survey of the current housing market by analysts Hometrack, shows that if prices fall by 10% this year, as many predict, it will mean that the proportion of young working households priced out of the housing market would drop by a fifth to 22.5%. Their figures are based on research by Steve Wilcox of York University. However, Professor Wilcox warned that the current mortgage shortage is still an obstacle to many, saying, ‘While house prices are falling, access to the property market is being increasingly limited by the costs and more restrictive terms of a substantially reduced supply of mortgage finance.’ So, while some won’t spend, others can’t spend.